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Zeta Strengthens Overnight; Higher End Category-2 Landfall Expected Late Today

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Hurricane Zeta presents itself slightly stronger than expected this morning, as a high-end category-1 hurricane. Zeta is poised for yet another U.S. Gulf Coast landfall later today, expected this afternoon as a category-2 hurricane over southeast Louisiana and thereafter Mississippi. Zeta's landfall will continue the already record-breaking 2020 hurricane season, marking the most named storm landfalls landfall along the Continental U.S. on record (11). With a high confidence forecast for a hurricane upon landfall, Zeta will tie the record of continental U.S. landfalling hurricanes (6).

 

 

 

Position Reports and Forecast Track of Zeta. Source: NOAA/NHC.

Stronger Today than Forecast

Capitalizing on a low wind shear environment overnight and warmer than average SSTs in the southern Gulf of Mexico, Zeta exceeded the 12-24 hour intensification forecast by all weather models issued yesterday. Evidence of this strengthening is the appearance of an eye in early morning satellite imagery.

NAM Weather Prediction Model Animation for Zeta through landfall. Source: TropicalTidbits 

Intensity Forecast

Zeta is expected to be a higher end category-2 hurricane by landfall late this afternoon. While cooler waters and higher wind shear are anticipated today, the continued strengthening of the system this morning coupled with a rapid forward speed of near 25 mph at landfall are expected to be the dominant factors in landfall intensity.

Expected Impacts

Zeta will render wind impacts of downed trees and powerlines with resulting power outages over a large area, along with some property damage. The rapid forward speed of Zeta will bring impacts further inland than normally associated with a category-2 landfall. Impacts will also include seawater inundation due to storm surge of up to 6-9 feet for coastal areas and adjacent waterways, with wave battering along the immediate coast. Inland flooding due to heavy rainfall is also probable for certain areas, although rapid forward motion looks to limit highest totals to under 10 inches. Zeta will depart the U.S. into the western Atlantic on Friday. At this time, damaging coastal winds are not anticipated for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast U.S. coastline, nor for Atlantic Canada 

Forecast Storm Surge. Source: NOAA/NHC.

Forecast 2-day Rainfall. Source: NOAA/WPC.

Record-Breaking

As a further note, Zeta was a record breaking third landfalling hurricane in the state of Quintana Roo, Mexico for the month of October. Additionally, Zeta is the strongest hurricane on record, this far west in the Gulf of Mexico, this late in the season.

Updates and Useful Links

A CAT-i report assessing the final impacts of Zeta will be issued on Friday, October 30.

Email alerts for Weather Sentinel and CAT-i reports are available on a subscription basis at the GC
 
Preference Center here.

Daily, global tropical cyclone alerts are also available on a subscription basis here.
 

U.S. National Weather Service U.S. National Hurricane Center

 

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