Overview Updates—As of September 10, 2024
- Over the course of the summer, insurance claims and loss information resulting from the April floods in the Gulf region continued to develop as loss adjusters were able to assess the damage caused and validate coverage, allowing initial estimates to be derived.
- Guy Carpenter has revalued the insured loss estimates with the additional data available, relying on the updated claims information understanding the approach and removing any conservatism from an experience perspective, and blending this with the analysis of precipitation map layers being made available through the GC Advantage Point® platform.
- Based on Guy Carpenter’s analysis with information available as of August 31, 2024, Guy Carpenter estimates total insured losses arising from this event to exceed USD 2.9 billion and could reach as high as USD 3.4 billion for the UAE, of which motor represents ~10%.
- Given the relatively low insurance penetration rate in the UAE, the economic loss is likely to be much higher.
- JBA, a global leader in flood risk management, conducted an Extreme Value Analysis on rainfall data to estimate the return period of the event. On that basis, the observed daily rainfall of 168 mm in the Dubai coast on April 16 suggests a 125-year rainfall event for Dubai City, while in the east of the UAE (Kalba), the 240 mm of rainfall suggests a 365-year event in that area. The 24-hour accumulated rainfall was lower in Oman, with 90 mm of rainfall observed in Al Mudhaibi, suggesting an 85-year rainfall event.1
Given the increased frequency and severity of floods observed in the region, Guy Carpenter’s Peril and Model Advisory team is developing Guy Carpenter’s own proprietary model GCAT Flood for the MENA region, planned to be released very soon.
GC Catastrophe Peril & Model Advisory teams provide peril insights, model evaluation, model development and help clients formulate and validate their view of risk.
Please reach out to one of our Guy Carpenter regional team members if you would like more information on a specific region or are interested in what new models are on the development plan. They can also help you discover if the latest (or any historical) event would affect your policies, to understand the latest updates in risk scores and climate change, or if you need help to define your own view of risk.
[1] JBA: https://www.jbarisk.com/products-services/event-response/dubai-floods-april-2024/