Summary
- Current Status: As of 8 a.m. EST on October, 9, 2024, Hurricane Milton is a powerful Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. Milton maintained Category 5 intensity overnight before slightly weakening in recent hours. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted that Milton’s wind field has been gradually expanding—as of 8 a.m. EST, tropical-storm-force winds extend 125 miles from the center. The center of circulation is located about 250 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida, and Milton is moving northeast at 16 mph. Heavy rainfall has developed over the Florida Peninsula well ahead of the center of circulation, and there is the threat of embedded severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes.
- Forecast Track: Milton is moving northeast toward the west-central Florida coast, being steered by an upper-level trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Model guidance has seen an uptick in agreement on Milton’s track, with most track scenarios depicting landfall from Bradenton to Venice. Confidence is increasing that Milton’s inner core will travel just south of Tampa Bay and Pinellas County. The NHC expects Milton to make landfall early Thursday morning on the central-west Florida Peninsula coast, with the onset of tropical storm conditions occurring late afternoon on Wednesday. Coastal communities in Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, and Lee counties should prepare for peak storm surge impacts from Milton. Confidence is increasing that Pinellas and Hillsborough counties will avoid the worst storm surge impacts but may be subject to the worst pluvial flooding. While confidence is increasing in the track of the storm, it is important to note that track error 18 hours out from landfall is approximately 40 miles. Milton then will traverse east-northeast across the Florida Peninsula before emerging into the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday afternoon.
- Intensity Forecast: Milton has been a resilient storm, maintaining category 5 intensity longer than originally forecasted. The NHC has increased Milton’s anticipated landfall intensity, now calling for the storm to be a category 4 storm as it approaches the coast. Despite weakening maximum sustained winds due to increased wind shear, Milton will continue to grow in size, amplifying potential storm surge and precipitation impacts due to an expanding wind footprint.
Headline Impacts
- Wind: The forecasted landfall intensity of Milton is between 115-130 knots (130-150 mph). Maximum recorded gusts could exceed 160 mph at coastal locations. The southeast portion of the storm contains the strongest winds.
- Surge: The forecasted maximum storm surge of Milton is 10-15 feet and the location of peak surge is currently forecasted for the Florida coastline between Sarasota and Port Charlotte. The region southeast of Milton’s landfall location is projected to receive the largest inundation levels so landfall location is critical for forecast accuracy.
- Rainfall: Milton is forecasted to drop 15+ inches of rain locally in less than 24 hours. The highest totals are forecasted to occur in the regions just northeast of the center of Milton during its traverse across Florida. Pluvial and fluvial flood risk is extremely high.
Another update from the CAT Resource Center on Milton will be sent out in the afternoon as the hurricane nears landfall.
Additional links of interest:
US National Hurricane Center
US National Weather Service
National Weather Service Tampa