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Live Event: California Wildfires—Improved Conditions Expected

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Current Fire Status 

  • Palisades: 23,712 acres, 22% containment, estimated 5000+ structures burned, evacuations still in place.
  • Eaton: 14,117 acres, 55% containment, estimated 7000+ structures burned, evacuations still in place.

Ongoing Impacts 

Conditions on Wednesday were conducive to additional suppression and containment of the Eaton and Palisades Fires, with both fires seeing little change in burned area and an increase in containment percentage. Despite minimal further growth of the fire perimeters, burning remains active within the perimeters, with evacuation warnings and evacuation orders still in effect for both fires. 

 

Eaton Fire Footprint on January 16. Source: CalFire.

Damage surveys within both fire perimeters continue, with CalFire reporting the Palisades Fire perimeter containing a confirmed 2,869 structures destroyed and 508 structures damaged, and the Eaton Fire perimeter containing a confirmed 5,718 structures destroyed and 679 structures damaged. As areas of both fires remain to be surveyed, these numbers will likely continue to increase over the coming days. 

Palisades Fire Footprint on January 16. Source: CalFire.

 

Current Weather Conditions and Outlook

Elevated fire weather conditions will persist through Thursday in parts of southern California with offshore winds weakening as the day progresses. Red Flag Warnings remain in place on Thursday for the Western San Gabriel Mountains, Interstate 5 Corridor, and the Santa Susana Mountains. It should be noted that these areas do not overlap with the Eaton and Palisades fire perimeters.


Source: NWS Los Angeles.

 

No precipitation is forecasted for the greater Los Angeles region within the next week. Onshore winds will see the marine layer push further inland, improving relative humidity substantially going into the weekend.

These conditions will help mitigate fire spread and will aid containment efforts. Early to the middle of next week, models suggest a possibility for further Santa Ana wind activity. Relative humidities are expected to drop to low or very-low values during this period as well, indicating critical fire weather conditions may develop, although the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center notes there is still a fair amount of uncertainty in the model output at this time.  

Fire Weather Outlook for Thursday, January 16. Source: Weather Prediction Center

Additional links of interest:
National Interagency Fire Center
SPC Fire Weather Outlook
CalFire
NWS Los Angeles


Register for Event Updates from the Guy Carpenter CAT Resource Center

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