Live Event: Catastrophic Wildfire Threat Continues in Southern California

Summary

• At least 5 major wildfires continue to affect Southern California, including the Los Angeles region and surrounding areas. 
• Catastrophic effects have been reported by media, with an estimated over 2,000 structures lost, and hundreds of thousands displaced by lost homes and evacuations, per the Los Angeles County Fire Department. Smoke and infrastructure disruption remain ongoing concerns.
• Weather conditions with strong, gusty winds and extremely dry conditions continue to maintain the threat for extreme fire spread. Some relaxation of conditions is expected intermittently overnight and over the weekend. 
• The weather forecast for early next week shows probable Santa Ana Conditions with strengthening dry offshore winds that will enable extreme fire spread for existing fires, as well as fresh ignitions or spot fires.

Wildfire Activity to Date

Southern California is battling multiple wildfires as of the morning of January 9, 2025, with at least 5 confirmed fatalities and more than 130,000 evacuations.

The Palisades Fire, the most destructive in Los Angeles history according to media reports, has burned at least 17,000 acres and destroyed over 1,000 structures. The Eaton Fire has consumed 10,600 acres, while the Hurst Fire (855 acres) and the Sunset Fire (55 acres) are partially contained.

Severe winds and dry conditions are fueling the blazes, leaving at least 1.5 million without power and closure of major highways. Emergency responders are stretched thin, as fires remain largely uncontained. 

Palisades Fire

As of Thursday morning, the Palisades Fire has grown to over 17,000 acres with 0 percent containment. CalFire has confirmed that 300 structures are destroyed, however, the Los Angeles County Fire Department estimates over 1,000 may have been destroyed.

Because the fire is still active, it is difficult to get a full picture of the destruction. Mass evacuations remain in place, and over 13,000 structures remained threatened. Gusts of 60-70 mph are expected to persist through Thursday, and firefighters will be working hard to build containment lines and prevent the fire from growing into populated areas like Santa Monica to the southeast.

The US Forest Service has deployed 5 large air tankers and 10 helicopters. More than 7,500 state personnel, including 4,700 CalFire staff, are deployed. Neighboring states have sent additional fire engines. 

The Palisades Fire is shown in orange above, with the red shading indicating mandatory evacuation in Santa Monica. There has been some spotting of the fire into Rustic Canyon just to the southeast of the Palisades Fire Perimeter, but  firefighters have managed to keep growth in this direction to a minimum. Further to the southeast, Santa Monica is an area of high structure density, and growth in this direction would significantly increase damages.

Eaton Fire

As of Thursday morning, the Eaton Fire has expanded over tenfold, now covering more than 10,600 acres. The Angeles National Forest Fire Department reports that 972 structures have been destroyed as of Wednesday at 7 PM PST, with 37,438 structures still at risk according to personnel. The fire remains 0 percent contained, and wind gusts up to 60 MPH are expected to persist through Thursday, potentially influencing further fire activity and suppression efforts. Historically, only the 1993 Kinneloa Fire impacted the same geography, resulting in an industry loss of USD 1.3 billion (2024), based on 1993 exposure adjusted for inflation.

Impacts

• This wildfire activity has caused damage in many neighborhoods in Los Angeles and surrounding areas, in some cases with catastrophic effect. Media reports indicate that 42 square miles of the city have been affected. This has been reported as the most destructive fire in recorded Los Angeles history.
• Thousands of structures are estimated to have been lost, including both residential and commercial properties. The Pacific Palisades neighborhood has shown widespread and particularly catastrophic damage. At least eight schools have been affected including the Palisades Charter High School. 
• At least 5 fatalities have been reported by media due to the Eaton fire, where at least 900 structures have been lost. Wildfire damage to property has shown to be either catastrophic, or very light, with very little in between according to findings of past wildfire and urban conflagration events and this will be a likely outcome for current wildfires.
• At least 130,000 are under evacuation orders. The Red Cross has deployed from remote offices to support those displaced by destroyed homes and evacuation orders, and Air BnB is offering temporary housing.
• Infrastructure disruption includes at least 257,000 without power in Southern California, with 82,000 in Los Angeles County. Reports indicate that the water supply has come under duress in certain neighborhoods affecting a critical resource for fire suppression, and water quality has been compromised in certain cases.
• It is too early to determine the full scope and severity of impacts with clarity as official resources are tasked with immediate life/safety and property protection. As conditions improve and resources can turn to more focused assessment of affected areas the reported numbers should be expected to change for fatalities, structures lost and economic impacts. Insured losses will likely be driven by property damage, with structural effects from direct fire, and interior effects from smoke to surviving structures including contents. Time element losses will be substantial given effects of power outages and mass evacuations and resulting effects to businesses. Health effects can also be expected from exposure to smoke and possible exposure to cold conditions from those displaced by recent activity.
• The affected area is one of notable risk due to both wildfire and urban conflagration. Specifics can be found in yesterday’s statement from the CAT Resource Center.

Weather Conditions

• Critical fire weather conditions and a red flag warning remain active for affected areas per the U.S. Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and National Weather Service (NWS). An air quality alert is also active for affected areas for smoke concerns. Specifics can be found at www.weather.gov and www.spc.noaa.gov.
• Widespread wind gusts approaching 100 mph recently affected the region (with isolated gusts exceeding 100 mph), enabling extensive ember spread and extreme fire growth.
• Wind conditions have become less severe overnight, but intermittent offshore flow conditions are expected to continue through early next week according to the NWS. 
• Wind gusts of 35-50 mph will be common this morning and could reach 55 mph or more during the day, especially in the foothills and mountain areas. Wind advisories remain active for the area.
• Offshore flow may pause briefly over the weekend, but another strong Santa Ana event is probable early next week, per the NWS. 
• Conditions will remain extremely dry during the period with relative humidities in the 10-20 percent range, with lower values of even 5 percent possible in certain areas.
• No rain is expected during the period.
• These conditions will continue to maintain the threat for extreme fire spread.
• The extremely dry offshore flow has been driven between a strong area of high pressure over the Great Basin and an area of low pressure over the Southwest. As the Great Basin High weakens overnight and weather patterns shift we should see reduced intensity of the offshore flow. However, the Great Basin high pressure area is expected to regain strength early next week to drive another strong, dry offshore wind regime per the NWS and SPC.

Sources: Associated Press, Cal Fire, Los Angeles County Fire Department, The Weather Channel, U.S. National Weather Service (LAX), U.S. Storm Prediction Center.