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Major Severe Weather Outbreak March 14-16 to Commence Active Season in US

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  • Strong Cyclone to Initiate Active Severe Weather Period: March is traditionally the month where severe thunderstorm outbreaks become more frequent as winter turns into spring. After a relatively quiet start to the month, a powerful low pressure system is expected to bring a widespread severe weather outbreak across the eastern Plains, Midwest, Southeast and Gulf Coast through Sunday. As seen in the Friday convective storm outlook above, a moderate risk, representing a threat of 4 out of 5 on the threat scale scale, indicates the strong potential for large hail in excess of two inches, winds in excess of 65 mph and several strong tornadoes. Several additional strong storm systems and severe weather outbreaks look to continue through the last third of March.
  • Southern US Wildfire Risk:  After several unusual wildfire outbreaks in the first half of March (Long Island, the Carolinas, Wisconsin, coastal Texas), wildfire risk also is projected to be extremely critical on Friday across northern Texas and Oklahoma, with continued heightened risk across the Southern Plains into next week. 
  • Factors Likely to Impact the Upcoming Severe Weather Season: A waning La Niña event in the equatorial Pacific will have a slight influence to reduce severe weather frequency from the record activity of the last two years. However, near to record high sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific, Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic elevate moisture profiles to feed severe thunderstorm severity. Persistent drought across northern Mexico and the southwestern US is also of concern for feeding elevated severe weather threats over the next several months. Thus, while several variables are in favor of heightened activity over the Spring, not all variables are universally aligned for a repeat of the last two years.
Regions of the country most susceptible to severe weather through March 19. All sub-perils are possible including hail, straight line wind and tornadoes. Source: Northern Illinois University.
Regions of the country most susceptible to severe weather through March 19. All sub-perils are possible including hail, straight line wind and tornadoes. Source: Northern Illinois University.
On Friday afternoon March 14, sustained wind speeds across northern New Mexico, north Texas and Oklahoma will exceed 40 mph with gusts of 60 mph. With ample short fuels, such as grasses, rapidly drying out due to exceedingly windy and dry conditions, any fire ignition will result in rapid fire propagation. Source: Tropical Tidbits.
On Friday afternoon March 14, sustained wind speeds across northern New Mexico, north Texas and Oklahoma will exceed 40 mph with gusts of 60 mph. With ample short fuels, such as grasses, rapidly drying out due to exceedingly windy and dry conditions, any fire ignition will result in rapid fire propagation. Source: Tropical Tidbits.
On Friday afternoon March 14, extremely critical fire weather will be present across portions of Texas, Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. Source: Tropical Tidbits.
On Friday afternoon March 14, extremely critical fire weather will be present across portions of Texas, Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. Source: Tropical Tidbits.
A forecast of extremely critical fire weather potential is a relatively rare occurrence in the Southern Plains, with a return interval of multiple years in Oklahoma. Source: Iowa Mesonet.
A forecast of extremely critical fire weather potential is a relatively rare occurrence in the Southern Plains, with a return interval of multiple years in Oklahoma. Source: Iowa Mesonet.
Extreme to exceptional drought across northern Mexico and the southwestern United States are also elevating long term conditions for wildfire potential. Additionally, dryness in this region is an influence in initiating severe thunderstorms further east into the Mississippi/Ohio River Valleys as well as the Southeastern US. While early March wildfires have largely spared property damage, the confluence of drought conditions, exceedingly dry and windy atmospheric conditions and human induced fire ignition has led to unusual wildfires on Long Island, the Carolinas, Wisconsin and Texas over the last two weeks. Source: NOAA Drought Monitor / UNL.
Extreme to exceptional drought across northern Mexico and the southwestern United States are also elevating long term conditions for wildfire potential. Additionally, dryness in this region is an influence in initiating severe thunderstorms further east into the Mississippi/Ohio River Valleys as well as the Southeastern US. While early March wildfires have largely spared property damage, the confluence of drought conditions, exceedingly dry and windy atmospheric conditions and human induced fire ignition has led to unusual wildfires on Long Island, the Carolinas, Wisconsin and Texas over the last two weeks. Source: NOAA Drought Monitor / UNL.
Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures have been above average for many months, with parts of February breaking all time record warmth for the time of year. Elevated heat content in the Gulf of Mexico helps to feed deep moisture into the warm sector of storm systems traversing the United States, adding fuel for robust severe thunderstorm activity. Source: Climate Reanalyzer.
Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures have been above average for many months, with parts of February breaking all time record warmth for the time of year. Elevated heat content in the Gulf of Mexico helps to feed deep moisture into the warm sector of storm systems traversing the United States, adding fuel for robust severe thunderstorm activity. Source: Climate Reanalyzer.

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