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Risks

Climate Change

Guy Carpenter’s Climate offering brings you an integrated range of services designed to address multiple facets of physical risks related to climate change, while leveraging the power of other Marsh McLennan businesses to also tackle all aspects of risk.

Creating Solutions for Insurers in a Changing Climate

At the end of 2024, global insured catastrophe losses exceeded $100 billion for the fifth year in a row. An evolving physical risk landscape coupled with population increases in more prone regions has required insurers to become significantly more sophisticated in their approaches to understanding catastrophe risk.

Companies developing and integrating robust climate change strategies into their risk management can benefit from the comprehensive offering at Guy Carpenter and across the Marsh McLennan enterprise. Our suite of climate advisory and modeling services supports insurers overcome the uncertainty of a changing climate and balance risks with opportunities in the near, medium, and long-term time horizons. 

Contact Us

  • Kieran Bhatia

    Head of Climate Change - Americas

    New York, US

    Sandra Hansen

    Head of Climate Change - International

    London, UK

  • Katy Reyner

    Climate Change Regulatory Lead

    Dubai, UAE

    Josh Darr

    Head of Global Peril Advisory

    Chicago, US

Quantifying Climate Change Outcomes

As the insurance industry adapts from educating to quantifying climate change outcomes, Guy Carpenter has released a suite of climate change products. These are available to aid in regulatory responses, industry benchmarking, underwriting strategies and risk management decisions. 

Guy Carpenter Climate Products

  • Catastrophe Model Adjustments

    Provides probabilistic quantification of physical climate change risk, using catastrophe modeling tools suitable for different emissions scenarios and warming levels. This informs the financial impact of climate change on your portfolio to fulfil regulatory requirements and support exposure and risk management strategies.
  • Education

    Guy Carpenter has a global team of climate scientists and regulatory experts equipped to understand the impacts of climate change for the insurance industry. Guy Carpenter publishes briefings on the latest science, regulatory requirements, market conditions and the implications for the insurance industry, and offers training and advice to support our clients in understanding this important topic.
  • Risk Ratings

    Global risk rating products form multiple perils. These provide location level loss metrics in present and future climate to inform underwriting and exposure management decisions.
  • Model Evaluation and Suitability for Present Climate

    Guy Carpenter can support clients with understanding how well catastrophe models represent the climate risk today.

In addition, Guy Carpenter offers a number of proprietary US hazard scores in present and future climate:

Guy Carpenter Climate Change Toolkit

Our Guy Carpenter climate change tools enable clients to quantify the physical impact of climate change on their modelled losses, based on scientific insight. This supports regulatory requirements, reinsurance and underwriting decisions, and internal risk management strategies.

Types of Climate Change Risks and Impacts

  • Physical Risks

    In the insurance context, physical risks are direct damage to insured assets by weather and climatic events. Climate change is increasingly influencing the frequency and severity of natural catastrophe perils, with physical climate risk exacerbating both acute and chronic threats.

  • Transition Risks

    Transitioning to a lower-carbon economy may entail extensive policy, legal, technology, and market changes to address mitigation and adaptation requirements related to climate change.

Marsh McLennan Enterprise

Spanning the Marsh McLennan Enterprise

Working in tandem with Marsh, Oliver Wyman, and Mercer, Guy Carpenter is also able to provide services that span several other climate-related areas. These services include transition risk modeling, climate investment portfolio modeling, asset-level resilience surveys and scoring, supply chain modelling and commercial due diligence.

By applying a combination of modeling techniques, proprietary risk assessments and the latest in scientific research, you can prioritize your climate-related activities, while also benchmarking the success of your approach against industry peers.

Questions To Ask About Your Climate Change Strategy

Survey: Market Attitudes on Climate Change

Guy Carpenter conducts an internal survey every year of all its brokers globally, to assess how climate change is impacting reinsurance renewal negotiations. We gathered almost 300 responses, with findings across different themes:

  1. Quantification of climate risk: The number of insurers quantifying their climate risk has increased particularly in Europe and the UK, but less than half of global respondents are quantifying their climate risk.
  2. Perils: For the majority of regions, a wide range of perils were cited as of concern. Flood is a key peril of interest in relation to climate change in both Europe and Asia Pacific. There is also a focus on severe thunderstorm following significant hail events in Europe and activity in the US.
  3. Market actions: Markets are taking a wide range of actions in relation to climate change, from pricing and capacity decisions, to increased retentions, higher attachment points and exclusion of fossil fuel intensive activities. Over time, this could worsen the problem of unaffordable insurance and increase protection gaps, suggesting that there is still work to be done to properly understand and more effectively manage changing risk.
  4. Disclosure requirements: The request for additional disclosures from carriers also more than quadrupled, from 4% in 2021 to 20% in 2024, particularly around fossil fuel percentages in treaty programs in line with EU Taxonomy regulations. Regulatory disclosure requirements, including quantification of climate risk, are accelerating, for example with the introduction of United States National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) climate filing requirements from 2025.
  5. Ongoing engagement: Even if climate change did not directly influence negotiations at renewals, these discussions typically occur throughout the year as part of ongoing relationships, rather than at renewals.

Survey results are collected annually to track the evolution of market expectations around climate change. 

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Resources: Understanding Climate Change Risks

  • Climate Change—Supporting the Insurance Industry in an Evolving Risk Landscape

  • How to Address Climate Risk

  • Climate Resilience Hinges on Management of Physical and Transition Risks

  • Global Risks Report 2024

  • COP 28: Highlight of Recent Guy Carpenter Insights Around Climate

  • Staying Above Water: A Systemic Response to Rising Flood Risk

Powering Your Business With Insights

  • Segments

    Offering you specialized expertise that focuses market knowledge, product innovation and analytics on your unique challenges—to provide you with an enduring competitive advantage.
  • Risks

    Bringing together an unparalleled depth and breadth of capabilities and experience to turn your risks into profit and sustained growth.
  • Reinsurance Broking

    Tailoring your solutions to effectively and efficiently match the right capital with your evolving risk profile.
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